Thursday, June 16, 2011

This is New Orleans

After a nice dinner at Antoine's Restaurant nestled in the heart of the French Quarter, what is there to do? The obvious answer is to listen to one of the very persuasive doors nearby and come in for "just one drink.” All of a sudden that rum and coke turns into two rum and cokes, and then a Jager Bomb, and then two hurricanes. Then a drunken stumble into a dark part of the quarter gets you into a "situation" with some shady characters. The night ends as only a night in the French Quarter can: with you trading your cell phone and wallet for your freedom. This scenario sounds eerily like what has happened to our economy in the last 10 years, and to Real Estate in particular.

The thing we need to remember throughout the whole mess is "IT'S NOT THAT BAD!!" America has always had a "woe is me" look at everything. Take the Civil War, for example. We survived that, along with the Great Depression. Nazis? Check. Japan taking over the world in the 80's? Not so much. It’s true that the world is still very much on shaky ground. The Chinese are slowing down and dealing with inflation issues, in addition to cooking the books. The eurozone is extremely problematic with huge currency and sovereign debt issues. However, like the champ its proven to be, the U.S. remains one of the preeminent places in the world to invest.

The globe has become smaller, but it's still growing economically. The United States will be the nexus point for a growing East in India and China, developing South America in Brazil, and let’s not forget about Europe. Some could say that we could become like the United Arab Emirates in a sense. They have pursued policies that have fostered economic growth and development to create the playground of the near east. With sensible regulation and policy making, we too can be the nexus point of a globally integrated economy.

With the end of QE2 and the $8,000 housing tax credit over, we've hit the wall of economic reality. Having hit that "wall" we must sit in this "coma" and just wait. For a country that has little patience this may seem interminable, but it's more than likely our best medicine. Over the course of the next 18-24 months, there will be bargain hunters who are ready to pull the ripcord and parachute into the housing market. More attempts at artificial recovery are only going to delay an already painful process.

The devastation that was post-Katrina New Orleans did bear fruit. Many people left, but many people stayed and rebuilt. With substantial coordination and effort, NOLA now has newer, better schools and hospitals. The infrastructure has been rebuilt and is currently pursuing and attracting businesses. The French Quarter is still filled with great food, alcohol, and revelry. The United States, with some coordination, will once again be the place where wealth is made, products and innovations are devised, and where people can still buy their houses with white picket fences

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